We’ve all seen the headlines which spew fiction as fact. One that caught my eye is another regurgitation of headlines gone amok the past month.
iPhone XR Demand Lower Than Expected
Whose expectations? Mine? No. Yours? No. Apple Store associates? Nobody knows. Apple? Of course not. Apple would never say anything of the kind.
OK, who thinks iPhone XR demand is lower than expected?
Famed security’s analyst Ming-Chi Kuo thinks iPhone XR demand is lower than his expectations. What he did not take into account is this:
iPhone XR Demand Higher Than Expected
Says who? Famous technologist and certified Apple watcher K.K. MacKenzie of New York. What was MacKenzie’s methodology to determine such a statement? Survey. Math. MacKenzie went to three different Apple Stores in New York (one in Brooklyn) to find a blue iPhone XR or a yellow iPhone XR for her mother, each with 128 GB of storage, and during the search, none were to be found.
Ipso facto and alakazam. iPhone XR demand was higher than expected.
That’s how it’s done, although the diminutive Ms. MacKenzie’s methodology to reach such a determination probably was more scientific than Ming-Chi Kuo who now has the luxury of making guesstimates that will never be compared to real facts because Apple won’t divulge individual product unit sales.
We believe that the iPhone ASP could at least keep growing YoY until 3Q19, and it will offset the YoY shipment decline. However, most suppliers will face growth challenges due to iPhone shipment decline.
This sounds much like a religious belief system, or a belief in chiropractic medicine, or a belief in the Keto diet, as opposed to guesstimates which were pulled from a hat. Based on my scientific read of television commercials from cellphone companies selling iPhones at a discount, the ASP– average selling price– likely will diminish this quarter vs. the same period a year ago.
And what’s all this noise about Apple’s suppliers who face growth challenges? iPhone sales haven’t gone north in four years so whatever growth challenges they had started years ago.
Check out this consideration from iClarified– sans byline, probably because nobody wanted their name associated with such considerations, which regurgitated the same nonsense as dozens of other websites:
Apple has resorted to some uncharacteristic marketing techniques to help bolster sales this holiday season but its unclear if they are having a positive effect.
Put another way, isn’t it clear than nobody except Apple knows anything about iPhone demand meeting, exceeding, or falling short of expectations? And, based upon my personal analysis and research, iPhone XR demand could be higher than expected.
It was two weeks ago during my, uh, um, research.