Which of the major polls has been the most accurate in recent national elections? The one from Investor’s Business Daily, the same one that has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by two points.
The IBD/TIPP poll results continue to show a much closer race than most other nationwide polls. Only the Rasmussen poll shows Trump ahead in a four-way contest (by two points). The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up by 5.9 points. And Clinton leads by an average 5.8 points in the latest two-way matchup polls.
Check out how the IBD/TIPP tracking polls fared in elections from 2004:
With less than two weeks to go, a number of polls showed a significant lead for Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Gallup, for instance, had Romney up by six points with just a week to go. Meanwhile, other polls showed an “enthusiasm gap”, with GOP supporters far more motivated to vote than Democrats. It looked like it could be a blowout — for the Republicans. But our own 2012 polling showed something different, with incumbent Barack Obama having the edge.
A national poll does not a state poll make, but you get the idea.