Apple’s string of huge industry successes has come to a bump in the road (it’s mixed metaphor week in Brooklyn). After reeling off a string of historic financial and market victories that started back at the turn of the century, Apple has hit either a peak, or a plateau, but a bump either way.
The string: Apple Stores, iPod, iTunes Music Store, iPhone, iPad, Watch, and services; all of them huge businesses on their own and highly profitable. But Apple is known more as the iPhone company and as the world’s economy has softened, so has Apple’s growth.
What’s next for iPhone?
The tea leaf readers at Morgan Stanley took a look at Apple’s growing R&D expenditures and determined the company was working on a car. Ipso facto and Voila! The Apple Car is Apple’s future. Not the iPhone. It’s as if Apple has reached Peak Gadget.
A single word makes it understandable and crystal clear why analysts, critics, media, and certified members of the technorati elite politburo think the company is working on Apple Car.
Despite its own struggles to make a profit on the seemingly successful Tesla Model S, the electric car company has become a darling in the industry and the must-have automobile for people who want to show off their collective means of life. Tesla is the automobile company Apple would be if Apple made cars. Teslas are that cool.
What comes after the iPhone?
Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty:
With Apple outspending the major auto OEMs on this opportunity, we believe Apple could gain at least 16 percent of the shared mobility market, similar to the company’s share in smartphones today.
Here’s the problem with spreadsheets. They work in two dimensions. Either the past, where numbers are collected. Or, in the future where numbers are projected.
Also, note that many market watchers think Apple isn’t just moving into car manufacturing as much as it is setting the stage for a future in what is called the shared mobility market. Think of a driverless-Uber with a mostly-autonomous electric vehicle. Fleets of them. All with an Apple logo. Apple could make and sell the vehicles, yes, but maybe the company is looking over the horizon and will own the whole shebang; end to end, top to bottom.
Morgan Stanley’s famed analysts think this shared mobility market is huge. More huge than Donald Trump can say huuuuge. And no one knows huuuuge better than The Donald. Shared mobility will be huge and Apple will get 16-percent of the whole market which is worth a few hundred billion in annual revenue on its own.
Look, Tesla’s been working on some fabulous automobiles and it has taken years for the company to begin moving them into mainstream (that location in space an time whereby affordability by the masses is in reach). Will Apple be able to move faster than Tesla with a product or service combo that no one has any details about whatsoever but they already have spreadsheet projections for it all anyway and we should believe the numbers because, well, spreadsheets?
Worldwide, Audi– a premium brand of luxury cars– sold less than 2-million units last year. 2-million. Average price tag? Numbers are not easy to come by but let’s say an average of $60,000 each. That’s $120-billion. Awesome, right? A mature, profitable, and premium automobile manufacturing company made less in revenue and profit than Apple did with the iPhone over the same period.
Wait. That’s just manufacturing and distribution worldwide for a single brand, and says nothing about the shared mobility market of which Morgan Stanley’s fiction writers think Apple will achieve a 16-percent marketshare and a few hundred billion more in annual revenue.
Sure. Uh huh. Right. By the way, if you think those projections are anywhere near reality then call me. I have great deal for you on a bridge here in Brooklyn. The price is negotiable.