Take these numbers with a grain of salt because IDC doesn’t have much of a track record for accuracy.
Apple’s watchOS is likely to see some slowdown in the early part of 2016 as anticipation builds for the second generation device. However, with newer hardware and an evolving ecosystem, Apple will remain the smartwatch leader through the majority of the forecast.
Android Wear remains in second place as its list of partners grows and the platform further integrates into Google’s larger ecosystem. Google’s decision to limit UI differentiation will stifle further growth (unlike its success in smartphones) but this may have the positive side effect of forcing brands to compete on design and price, appealing to the fashion conscious, the budget conscious, or both. Adding Android-based smartwatches to Android Wear would push the category into first place in 2020.
It’s a longwinded way of saying Android Wear will take over marketshare, while Watch will retain profit share.