Apple just can’t catch a break, so says the latest research from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. Ina Fried from AllThingsD provides the details and data but somehow missed the obvious analysis opportunity from CIRP’s research.
Here’s the gist of it. Apple just isn’t doing well among first-time smartphone buyers as it does among those who’ve already owned a smartphone or two. It seems the data clearly displays Apple’s conundrum. About half of previous smartphone owners buy an iPhone, while less than one third of first-time smartphone owners buy an iPhone.
Since Apple’s global smartphone marketshare is somewhere between 10-percent and 20-percent, one third seems like a lift, but maybe not.
Here’s where there should be some real world analysis but there is none.
Samsung does about the same with first-time smartphone buyers as with repeat smartphone buyers (but far less than Apple). LG and the always interesting Other category, do best among first-time buyers, and not so well with repeat smartphone buyers.
Maybe it’s because many first-time smartphone buyers go cheap, then upgrade to higher quality devices.
Phones running Microsoft Windows or BlackBerry OS make up a tiny sliver of the Other category, so they’re dismissed out of hand.
So, Apple is doomed, right?
Why? Well, first-time smartphone buyers prefer phones other than the iPhone, and by a big margin. But wait. More repeat smartphone buyers prefer the iPhone to any other. So, if that’s the case, and numbers don’t lie, Apple’s iPhone should continue to sell well as tens of millions of people get their first smartphone, then decide to upgrade to a better smartphone in the future.
The upgrade smartphone of choice is the iPhone.
Now, that’s what I call analysis. I wonder why AllThingsD missed that obvious point from the research? Oh, I know why. Apple doing well does fit the ‘Apple is doomed’ narrative, even if research and math say otherwise.