Food for thought from John Dvorak must not be taken lightly. It’s not that Dvorak’s predictions are correct very often (they’re not). It’s not that his predictions are mostly wrong (they are). John Dvorak can take ridiculous subject material and write it in an interesting way.
The latest in MarketWatch says Microsoft may be poised to challenge Apple.
You just never know exactly how to take a Dvorak slant. He thinks Microsoft may be planning to go into the computer business to compete with Apple. Forget that Windows PCs still own about 90-percent of world’s PC supply.
PC’s are not PC anymore. PC’s are passé. Ever innovating Apple has created the post-PC era, and Microsoft got left behind. How will they catch up? Windows Phone? That might help Nokia stave off bankruptcy, but even a highly touted new phone OS hasn’t made a dent in Apple’s iOS juggernaut.
How will they catch up? Windows 8? Sure. That’s exactly what people need in the post-PC era, a three-pound, diesel powered, one-inch thick tablet running Windows apps.
How will they catch up? Xbox 360. It’s the trojan horse of portable devices. It’s not a phone. It’s not a tablet. It hasn’t even been a profitable game console or platform for Microsoft.
Xbox, in John Dvorak’s mind, is the center of Microsoft’s future. If it is, Microsoft is doomed to obscurity, a footnote in the exploding post-PC era.
Dvorak baits us with a headline about yet another looming battle between Goliath Microsoft and David Apple (where David is the giant), but sums himself up with a whimper:
The tricky part will be how Microsoft executes a potentially new platform. Right now there is no evidence that they can pull off an original idea, if that’s what is indeed going on.
Hello? Where’s the challenge? Where’s the beef? Where’s the red meat?
I could do the same thing. Adobe may be poised to challenge Apple. Or, Samsung may buy Apple. Or, Motorola poised to accelerate like light speed beyond Apple’s riches.
A challenge to a duel is not much of a challenge when one of the combatants doesn’t have a sword.
Xbox 360? Seriously? The future is handheld, wireless, mobile, light, fabulous graphics, power sipping CPUs, solid state flash memory, nimble OS, and an all encompassing ecosystem of rich media and apps.
How does Microsoft’s Xbox 360 stack up against that?