Don’t you just love predictions? We live in an age when everything we say or do can be memorialized; either on TV, YouTube, or a Google cached web page. It’s all out there to remember for the ages. Here’s Alex Cook in Frontier Outlook, April 3, 2010:
I don’t get it. It costs $500 for the basic model, when you could get a laptop with a lot more functionality for about the same price. The iPad hype machine has been in full effect this week, and I still think it’s just that—hype.
Hey, Alex. How about looking at history for some of Apple’s flops:
Steve Jobs has been wrong before. One of his earlier projects before he was ousted as the Apple CEO (and obviously before he was re-hired later) was the Apple Lisa. It was a computer built in 1983 with a graphical user interface and features now associated with a modern computer—significantly ahead of its time in 1983. Unfortunately, it was horribly expensive and ended up as a commercial flop.
How and why will the iPad fail?
The iPad could be even worse. At least the Lisa was ahead of its time. The iPad isn’t ahead of anything, but it’s certainly expensive. Tablet computers didn’t flop when HP was making them because HP lacked vision or creativity; they flopped because tablets were a bad idea. They’re not as useful as a laptop, and they’re not mobile enough or cheap enough to replace a smartphone—and of course, they can’t make phone calls.
Yep. The iPad is just a big iPhone without all the features.
I don’t buy the iPad hype. Analyst expectations for iPad revenue are way overblown. If I turn out to be wrong, I’ll gladly eat my words, but I’m pretty sure that I’m not wrong.
From the time Cook wrote his prediction in April 2010 to the end of December 2010, about nine months, Apple sold 14.3-million iPads.