How many Windows Phone 7 smart phones will Microsoft sell in 2011? MobileTechWorld obtained a photo of projections which says 30-million. From Donald Melanson in Engadget:
Microsoft is apparently expecting to sell 30 million Windows Phone 7 devices by the end of 2011, based on IDC projections. To state the obvious, that’s pretty ambitious any way you slice it—especially considering that the first Windows Phone 7 devices are still quite a few months away from hitting the market, giving Microsoft just over a year to reach that mark.
The competition? Apple’s iPhone 4.0 and 5.0 (next summer), Google’s Android 2.x and 3.x (next year), both of which are already more advanced than Microsoft’s anemic phone software.
UPDATE: Microsoft now admits the presentation slide was incorrect, but does not provide additional projections for 2011.
Microsoft presented a slide projecting the number of Windows Phone 7 [devices] to be sold in 2011. This slide was inaccurate, and intended to represent an analyst’s assessment of the market opportunity.
My assessment of the smart phone market for the next few years is continued fragmentation. RIM, Android, and iPhone will continue to do well. Others will adopt niche market segments and begin to fade away.