I thinks I, Cringley is an iBozo

Robert X. Cringley thinks that Apple’s CEO is an Iron Man: Steve Jobs is tougher than you think. Cringley says that Apple wants to buy Adobe. It’s the how it wants to buy Adobe that makes Cringley an iBozo of the Week.

A Little History

Cingley starts off with a little game and ends up suggesting Robert Downey, Jr. play Steve Jobs in a movie of the Apple iCon’s life.

Downey is a little too nice to play Jobs but otherwise it fits, especially in the elaborate planning and preparations that we see coming clear at Apple. Like Iron Man, Jobs is up to something, something big.

Translation: It’s too quiet at Apple. Too quiet. Something is going on. I can smell it.

The man with no nose then treats us to a history lesson and whitewashes the fence comparing Bill Gate’s 10 year tenure as Microsoft’s CEO, to Jobs, who has reigned longer. An Iron Man, of sorts.

Among the big companies only Michael Dell has been at it longer than Jobs altogether… while Jobs seems in his element and determined to stay for as long as possible.

Translation: Pay no attention to the history lesson, I’m about to quantum leap.

Apple Selling?

Is it time to start talking about Apple buying Adobe? No, not yet. There are other fish to fry in Cingley’s Bizarro World.

So why, then, was Apple quietly shopping around its entire professional application business to prospective buyers at the recently completed National Association of Broadcasters show in Las Vegas?

Translation: I got nothing. Except a vivid imagination. My site needs the hits today.

Apple’s pro business is heady and successful. Final Cut Pro just hit 1-million users. There’s also Aperture, Logic Studio, Shake. All top notch, well spoken of, loved and cherished. As Cingley says:

Final Cut, of course, absolutely dominates the video editing business. Why would Apple want to give that up?

Indeed. Why? Cingley goes on to paint, not the past, but the present, and talks about Steve Jobs’ long term perspective vs. most CEOs who live by the quarter. Sony might buy the pro apps (Sony sells PCs, Apple’s pro apps are Mac only). Avid might buy Apple’s pro apps (then what? Oh, kill them off...).

Cashing Out

Sooner or later, every prognostication or wild hair about what Steve Jobs and Apple will do next focuses on the money. Apple has nearly $20-billion sitting around doing not much.

The logic is inescapable. What will Apple do with that money? Buy Yahoo? Buy Sony? Buy Dell, close it down and give money back to shareholders? No, it always comes down to our old favorite, Apple will buy Adobe. It always comes back to that.

There is only one real reason why Apple would sell off its professional applications and that’s to avoid antitrust problems when/if Apple buys Adobe Systems as I predicted at the beginning of the year.

Translation: I predict Apple will buy Adobe. Again. This time it’s serious. Seriously.

Lombard Street Blues

Cringley swerves, skids, and fish-tails his way to the only obvious conclusion; spinning and weaving bits of titillating nonsense into a fabric of plaid rumors.

We haven’t yet seen Apple include that H.264 video encoder/decoder chip that I have written Apple is committed to using across its entire Mac/iPod/iPhone line.

I’d buy one of those decoder chips. It will go nicely with my decoder ring.

Apple’s goal in acquiring Adobe would be to control first Flash and second Adobe’s emerging Air application platform.

Translation: Apple hates Flash. That means they want to buy it.

Such is the life of iCringley in Bizzaro World. Black is white. Up is down.

Damn. It took 1,345 words, 7,739 characters, including spaces, to get to the punch line.

Owning Flash and merging it with QuickTime would give Apple near-total dominance of Internet video, furthering the advantages of iTunes and shoring up in the process the iPod franchise. They’d be giving up a sports car in Final Cut Pro, but end up effectively owning the road instead.

Translation: I have no idea what Jobs is up to but I want him to buy Adobe so I’ll be right for a change.

Unfortunately, this isn’t one of those moments.

Update

Even Apple is tired of the Sell Final Cut Pro rumors. Apple’s Richard Townhill on the rumor that FCP is for sale:

I can categorically state, on the record, that is not the case.

Enough said. Now, about those Adobe Buyout rumors…