How Predicting The Future Of iPad vs. Tablets Is A Ridiculous Guessing Game

There are few times when I read something online and spit up all over my iPad’s screen, but IDC made me do it again. Their latest forecast and projections indicate the iPad will do well in the next four years, but encroachment on market share by Android and Microsoft tablets will relegate Apple’s device to minority status shortly after that.

What are IDC’s projections based upon? As best I can tell, those numbers are easily obtained by the time honored use of suppositories, necessary to extract mythical numbers from where the sun don’t shine.

Apple is the only major tablet manufacturer to release actual sales numbers, yet somehow IDC has figured out the iPad has about 54-percent market share, vs. Android at nearly 43-percent, and Windows making up the rest.

Wait. That’s it.

They’re making up numbers. Other than at Best Buy, have you ever seen anyone with an Android-based tablet? Even Amazon, which claims to have a hot selling Kindle line refuses to announce how many Kindles are sold or have been sold. Ever.

Microsoft refuses to say how many Surface tablets have been sold. Have you seen one? Meanwhile, Apple has sold well over 100-million iPads, which means there are nearly 100-million non-iPad tablets on the market, yet not one company will announce the number they’ve sold.

Now, get this. IDC, which says the iPad’s 2012 market share is almost 54-percent, says it will be just under 50-percent in four years; 2016. That’s not even a 10-percent drop, yet, the iPad seems to have dropped from 90-percent to 50-percent in less than three years.

See the problem?

It’s a guessing game in which anyone can play, and if you add enough words to your projections, maybe someone will pay money to read the numbers.

Before we begin counting, how about if we define what we’re supposed to be counting? Are Kindle eReaders tablets? They’re tablet like, of course, but anemic in capability compared to an iPad. Is the Kindle Fire HD a tablet? Probably. Google Nexus? Why not? Microsoft Surface? Uh, well, it could be. Alright. Maybe.

The problem with prognosticating the future is that the future changes. By the time we get there, the future has moved again. Where? To the future.

For any research organization to predict what a company will do in the tablet arena over the next four years is an exercise in futility, a high class guessing game. One thing is for sure, though. iPad competitors are scrambling to figure out a way to compete against the iPad, even to the point of selling tablets at cost just to make a dent against Apple’s lead.

Guess what?

Apple isn’t standing still. There’s plenty of talk that Apple has increased the formerly once-per-year product upgrade cycle to once-every-six-months. We’ll see more incremental changes in future products, rather than leaps and bounds (such as a Retina display in an iPad mini).

Meanwhile, Apple remains the revenue and profit leader in the tablet industry (as it is in the smart phone industry). How about if someone gives me some non-suppository location numbers that indicate that lead won’t continue.

Comments

  1. The problem is the ignorant analysts and pundits are using it as the gospel truth and use it in anyway they can to hammer Apple be it their share price or products.

  2. stock manipulator says:

    These analysts are the lead component in a worldwide stock manipulation effort. They trash a company, regardless of financials, the stock drops, then they prop it back up again, the stock rises, and they and their clients get rich.