The iPod’s rise to market dominance was slow. The iPhone’s rise to market mind share dominance was fast. A study suggests that what becomes popular fast often becomes unpopular fast. Researcher Jonah Berger:
Managers often want their products to catch on quickly, and conventional wisdom would say that products which catch on quickly should be more likely to succeed. Our results, however, show that the exact opposite can occur. Fast adoption can hurt success.
Good for the iPod, not so good for the iPhone (though it can be argued that the iPhone has succeeded in mind share, not market share, therefore is less susceptible to the theory)?
We think these findings extend to a broad range of areas where choices signal identity. People often join social movements, choose products, or wear styles because of what it communicates about them to others, and in these domains of life, adoption speed should influence cultural success.
This does not bode well for Twitter, huh?